265 R TREE ARCHIVE (74.105.214.2) papaFi ( 2012-11-14 20:50:59 ) ...(к сожалению ето не в открытой печати а коопировать все лень. Ето концовка)
IT'S NOT A QUESTION OF IF BUT HOW SOON?
The first thing you have to realize about this shale development is the sheer size of the trend.
As we mentioned, Goldman Sachs is predicting the United States will be the leading producer of oil in the world by 2017. It sees American oil production reaching 10.9 million barrels a day by 2017. That's more production than Russia and Saudi Arabia. And U.S. production at those rates would eclipse the previous all-time high daily production in the U.S., which was set in the early 1970s at nearly 10 million barrels per day.
Most people believed this could never happen… that we'd already reached “peak oil” and that production rates would only fall, forever.
But those predictions were simply wrong. Once again, new technologies, daring entrepreneurs and billions in investment capital have changed everything in the oil business.
Amy Myers Jaffe, energy expert and director of the Baker Institute Energy Forum at Rice University, summarizes the information we have now:
“By the 2020s, the capital energy will likely have shifted back to the Western Hemisphere,” due to both the stable political environment and of course the new technologies of horizontal drilling and fracking.
There's also Pete Stark, a former geologist for Mobil Oil, who agrees, “A huge production revival through 2020 with tight oil leading the way.” He dubs this the age of the “tight oil renaissance.”
This news of energy independence couldn't come at a better time.
Our currency has been in dire jeopardy. Unrest in the Middle East has caused soaring oil prices and has put pressure on the U.S. dollar as reflected in huge U.S. trade deficits. Last year alone, petroleum accounted for 44% of America's trade deficit.
As Edward Morse, former U.S. diplomat and now global head of commodities research at Citigroup says, “The two vulnerabilities of the U.S. as a global superpower have been its dependence on imported oil and its current account deficit. Now it may be in the process of resolving both of those.”
Obviously, that's great news for our country, as Mr. Morse explains: “The notion that the U.S. was a superpower in the 20th century but won't be in the 21st doesn't hold up so well now…. Compare us to a country such as China, which is going to be overwhelmingly dependent on energy imports. The U.S. is in a much stronger position.”
Take a look at this chart to understand the trend that's occurring in the U.S.:
As you can see, there's a sharp increase – an unprecedented increase – in U.S. crude oil drilling rigs in operation. And that means, an unprecedented increase in U.S. supply is around the corner. Remember, the U.S. is still in its infancy for shale drilling. There's still a huge shortage of drill rig supplies and fracking crews. If you doubt any of the things we've told you so far… just look at that chart again.
If you take only one idea from this letter… if you walk away with only one idea to use in your own investing, let it be this: We have a road map for the coming changes to the oil market. All of these things have already happened with natural gas.
The natural gas drilling boom began about 10 years before the oil boom. Prices for natural gas, as you know, collapsed in 2008. They haven't really bounced back yet.
Most people think the collapse in natural gas prices will last forever. They're wrong. Natural gas is being sold at prices that defy all logic based on history and its relationship to other forms of energy. Historically, natural gas has sold for about 1/10th the price of oil. In the U.S. today, it's trading for over 1/20th the price. This huge price discrepancy will resolve itself soon. When it does, billions of dollars will be made.
Let me show you what I mean in two ways.
First, this chart shows the relative prices of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil and U.S. natural gas based on energy equivalence. As you can see, buying energy in the form of natural gas is now 80% cheaper than buying oil. That's a record-breaking difference. That means, wherever possible, energy buyers are going to prefer natural gas.